Econ Ramblings

Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Ch5

Ch 5

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=bd74c16c-2845-4cbb-8812-453ccc261b2c&k=91189

This article analyzes the possible connection between population and economic growth. It takes a look specifically at two provinces in Canada: Newfoundland and Saskatchewan. These two provinces have both experienced decreasing populations (about 1% each) – however, both of their real GDPs have gone way up (Saskatchewan = 14.3% and Newfoundland = 27.9%). While this article acknowledges that this is an impressive accomplishment, there is definitely more going on underneath the surface.

Both Newfoundland and Saskatchewan rely heavily on their resource markets; this is what is driving up their GDPs. Should anything negative happen to the prices of their resources, the GDP is sure to plunge. This is so because employment hasn’t been spectacular in either of these two provinces. Not only that, they are losing potential employees to other more attractive provinces such as Alberta and British Columbia. On the flip side, Ontario and Quebec (who have had increasing populations) had some of the worst GDP’s among Canadian provinces. This was because their population growth was largely due to immigrants coming in. While they may still be able to pull in high incomes because of their skills, they probably still need time to adapt to a new country and a new job. This indicates a possible inverse relationship between GDP and population growth.

This relates to Chapter 5 because we are currently learning about economic indicators and the gross domestic product. Based on what we’ve learned about different kinds of unemployment (frictional, seasonal, etc), I would say that Newfoundland and Saskatchewan experienced heavy increases in unemployment because of seasonal unemployment – both of these provinces rely greatly on their resources, so they would probably have drastically fluctuating population numbers. Also, seasonal unemployment tends to be very uninviting because there really is no solution to it – all you can do is wait for the seasons to change, for the time to pass. Because of this, these two provinces are losing out to other more attractive areas in terms of work force retainment. Ontario and Quebec, neither of which is rich in resources, have declining GDP’s because they probably have to import more products (imports are subtracted from the GDP). Because of the special circumstances in these four provinces (seasonal unemployment, international immigration) I would go against what this article at first glance suggests and say that GDP and population growth go hand in hand (as opposed to having an inverse relationship).